Increased fuel siphoning across Mexico risks reducing private sector interest as the liberalisation process enters the midstream and retail phase. The government's inability to deter theft will ensure its continued growth over the next several years.
Mexican crude production will remain in decline through 2017 as Pemex directs its funds towards its most profitable assets. A growing focus on deepwater and onshore farmouts will form the basis of future growth but will only materialise post-2020.
Favourable Q4 results illustrate the gradual recovery currently underway at Petrobras. Though the company will face continued headwinds, further deleveraging and operating improvements will boost investor confidence in the company over the coming year.
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Thanks, BMI Research