Global Oil Market Update May 2009

In spite of oil prices continuing to trend higher and a mood of inexplicable optimism in the oil markets, we are sticking with our existing assumptions for 2009 and beyond. Talk of 'green shoots' could result in red faces if the demand trend does not improve and inventories are not reduced. Price performance in 2009 has so far supported our above-consensus stance, but we will admit that the oil market is living dangerously. There has been little evidence of improving fundamentals to justify recent strength.

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