Global Coffee Outlook: Vietnam Focus

BMI View: Although rainfall in the northern part of Vietnam's Central Highlands coffee belt has delayed the 2010/11 coffee harvest by two weeks at the time of writing, BMI forecasts the crop is still on track for a 5.7% rebound in output to 19.2mn 60kg bags this season from 18.2mn in 2009/10. This is because production quality is unlikely to be affected unless rains occur during the actual picking of the beans. Out to 2014/15, we expect production growth of 23% to 24.2mn bags as the Vietnamese government endeavors to increase the replanting of coffee trees. Increased export opportunities will also be a major driver of production over the long run.

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