Industry Trend Analysis - Above-Ground Risks Underpin Bearish Upstream Outlook - OCT 2017


BMI View: Indonesia's crude oil and natural gas production will decline at an average annual rate of 1.7% and 4.0%, respectively, over the next five years, as persistent weakness in global oil prices and myriad above-ground risks slow development of significant new projects and render costly output maintenance programs at existing assets increasingly unpalatable.

Indonesia's crude oil and natural gas production is set to see firm declines over the next five years (2017-2021), amid slowing investment into new projects to counter natural declines at mature assets. Moreover, although we believe oil prices will improve over the coming years, the gradual pace of the rebound, particularly over the next two years, will continue to drag on firms' appetite for costly output maintenance works at aging fields.

We expect oil production to see a 1.5% y-o-y drop-off in 2018, from 812,000b/d in 2017 to 800,000b/d in 2018. This marks a slight downward revision from our previous forecast for a 1.0% yearly decline, and is in line with the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' own revised down oil production target for 2018.

Oil, Gas Output To See Firm Declines
Indonesia - Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: JODI, BMI

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