Industry Trend Analysis - AMLO Win Would Usher In Policy Shift - APR 2018


BMI View: A victory for populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's July 2018 presidential election would increase government spending on infrastructure and housing, raise uncertainty around the future of energy reforms and the landmark New Mexico City International Airport project, and would ramp up anti-corruption measures.

A win by populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's presidential election on July 1, 2018 poses the greatest potential for a policy shift out of likely election outcomes. AMLO, currently the frontrunner ( 'Crib Sheet: AMLO Early Favourite As Field Takes Shape', December 18), would represent a more radical break from the current government's infrastructure agenda compared to the other two principal candidates running for the presidency: Ricardo Anaya of the Por Mexico En Frente coalition and former Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade, running for the governing PRI.

Taking into account AMLO's plans for the sector and our views regarding his ability to achieve them, we have identified three conclusions regarding what an AMLO victory would mean for Mexico's infrastructure sector:

  • An increased likelihood of a boost to government spending on infrastructure and housing construction;
  • Rising uncertainty for key infrastructure-related programmes, including the country's landmark energy reforms as well as ongoing construction of the New Mexico City International Airport (NAICM);
  • Anti-corruption measures would accelerate, supporting greater transparency across the industry

AMLO In The Lead
Mexico - Voting Intentions (%)
Source: BMI, National Sources

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