Industry Trend Analysis - Demand Growth Positive For Russian Export Targets - JAN 2018

BMI View: Strong gas demand growth in Turkey will encourage the current construction of the TurkStream pipeline, enforcing Turkey's role as a key growth market for Russian exported gas.

Turkish gas demand in the YTD (data to August) has shown robust growth, with an average increase y-o-y of 17.8%. Accordingly, Gazprom reported that from January to the middle of November it supplied 24.8 billion cubic meters of gas to the republic - a 21.7% increase compared to the same period of 2016. We maintain our outlook for positive growth in Turkish gas consumption over 2017, as a gradual recovery in economic fundamentals boosted residential and industrial demand, we have adjusted our 2017 full year figures upwards to reflect the stronger H1 performance. We now expect total gas demand in 2017 to reach just under 50bcm.

Key Drivers

  • Demand Strengthening Through The YTD
    Turkey Gas Consumption, bcm (LHS) & % Growth y-o-y (RHS)
    Source: JODI, BMI

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