Industry Trend Analysis - Fuels Demand Off To A Strong Start - JUNE 2017

BMI View: Strong fuels demand data for the first two months of 2017, suggest that we could be underestimating fuels consumption in Europe and poses upside risk to our forecast.

Our view that European fuels demand will return to its downtrend in 2017 has been put into question by stronger than anticipated consumption in the first two months of the year. We have previously noted that vehicle efficiencies, rising prices and inflation pressures will erode fuels demand in 2017 ( see ' Fuels Demand To Moderate ' , Jan 17).

Looking at fuels as demand as whole, European demand started 2017 as it left 2016- strongly. Demand grew year-on-year from October 2016 to January 2017. This demand growth tapered off in February falling by -0.13% but this was easily offset by the 2.66% expansion the previous month.

Consumption To Decline From 2017 Onwards
Refined Products Production, 000 b/d
f= BMI estimate. Source: BMI, National Sources

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