Industry Trend Analysis - Gas Demand Falters, Fuels Resilient - APR 2017


BMI View: Economic and political headwinds will continue to drag on gas consumption growth in Turkey over 2017. In contrast, refined fuels demand will continue to show robust y-o-y growth, driven by a strong pipeline of domestic infrastructure projects and the country ' s growing role as an aviation hub.

In line with our long term view, gas consumption in Turkey will continue to experience notable headwinds from domestic economic issues which will drag on growth over the next two years. Full year gas consumption data over 2016 shows a year-on-year decline from 2015, in line with our forecast (see ' 'Economic Slowdown Curbing Gas Consumption', November 17 2016), and we expect only marginal growth over 2017. However, in contrast, despite economic and political hurdles, domestic refined fuels consumption increased by approximately 8% last year, and whilst we expect a moderation of this growth over 2017, we expect robust fuels demand growth to continue.

G as Consumption Hit By Economic Headwinds

Consumption: 2 Year Stagnation
Turkey: Natural Gas Consumption
e/f = BMI estimate/ forecast. Source: EPDK, JODI, BMI

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