Industry Trend Analysis - GTL Upside No Downstream Fix - JAN 2018

BMI View : Renewed gas exploration offshore offers upside risk to fuels production at the Mossel Bay GTL plant . However, this does not address the broader challenges facing the South African downstream, which will continue to drive up import reliance over the coming decade.

South Africa's state-owned PetroSA has signed an agreement with Russian geological firm Rosgeo for exploration of the offshore blocks 9 and 11a. The deal - reported at around USD400mn - includes 4,000sq km of 3D seismic surveying and 13,000km of gravity and magnetic geophysical studies. The exploration is targeting the development of 1.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas production a year, to feed the Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility.

Gas Feedstock Critically Low

PetroSA Battling Declines
South Africa Natural Gas Production Forecast
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA

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