Industry Trend Analysis - KRG Data Gap Provides Production Obscurity - SEPT 2017

BMI View: A lack of production data from the KRG reduces the transparency of Iraqi oil production figures, providing the country with the obscurity to produce more oil than allocated under the OPEC agreement.

By all accounts Iraq has reduced oil production from October 2016 levels, though it falls short of the production target of 4.351mn b/d agreed at the November 2016 OPEC meeting. Secondary source OPEC data shows Iraq complying most effectively, while BMI's estimates and Iraq's own direct reporting to OPEC see weaker compliance.

We calculate Iraqi oil production by tracking exports from Basra, exports from the Kurdistan region via Turkey, direct crude burn and refinery throughput. This has seen our calculations closely match those of secondary sources. However, the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) has failed to release data since October 2016, coincidentally the reference point for the OPEC production cuts, and as such we have had to estimate output from the region. It should be noted, Kirkuk export data provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, only indicates production from the central government owned fields exported via Ceyhan, and does not recognise production from the international oil companies.

Production Down
Iraq Production - OPEC Direct & Secondary Source, BMI
Source: OPEC, Ministry of Oil, Ministry Of Natural Resources, JODI, BMI

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