Industry Trend Analysis - Output Fall To Drive LNG Imports - SEPT 2017

BMI View : Thailand ' s LNG imports are set to see consistent growth over the next five years, driven by the need to offset output declines at mature assets. The country is well-placed to benefit from sustained weakness es in the Asian spot LNG market, due to the limited number of long-term contracts in its import portfolio.

Thailand's LNG imports jumped 9.5% y-o-y in the first five months of 2017, driven by the need to offset output declines at mature gas fields. Thailand Ministry of Energy statistics show that the country imported a total of 1.37mn tonnes in M517, compared with 1.25mn tonnes a year ago.

The increase in LNG imports is driven by the need to offset falling domestic production. Despite efforts to sustain output at mature assets, including as Bongkot and Erawan, overall production tumbled by 4.2% y-o-y in 2016. Continued volatility and a pullback in upstream spending saw this trend carry over into 2017, with government data showing that April's gas production fell 5.0% year-on-year, while total production over M417 also declined 1.2% y-o-y.

LNG Needed To Offset Falling Production
Thailand - LNG Imports, mn metric tonnes & Natural Gas Production, bcf/d
Source: Ministry Of Energy, BMI

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