Industry Trend Analysis - Supply Disruptions Supporting Prices - MAY 2017

BMI View: An increase in supply disruptions has the potential to offer a boost crude prices, providing some short-term downside protection and supporting our near term bullish outlook.

A collection of supply disruptions are providing some upside to prices after consecutive weeks of bearish inventory data has weighed on prices, which supports our short-term bullish outlook ( see ' Short Term Bullish Brent ' , March 23). The disruptions to Libyan production pose the most upside to our Brent forecast as it is a more comparative crude grade, competing in a similar market and also given past-experiences could drag on for a considerable length of time. Below we list the current supply disruptions that are a result of both security and operating issues.

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