Industry Trend Analysis - Technical Issues Will Continue To Disrupt Output - JUNE 2017
BMI View: An extended production outage at the Jubilee field in H2 2017 for essential maintenance work will weigh on overall oil and associated gas output from the country. Risks to further delays are heightened , with discussions with the Ghanaian government yet to be concluded.
Delays to remediation work to Tullow Oil's offshore Jubilee field's floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPSO) will suppress Ghana's overall oil and gas production over 2017. Currently, Tullow Oil -the operator and owner of the Jubilee Field- is in discussions with Ghana's government on stabilization procedures for the mooring turret and the final heading of the FPSO. Issues with the installation of the mooring turret were set to be remedied in late 2016 however discussions stalled (see ' Initial Production Problems Will Abate ' , February 6).
A final decision regarding the FPSO should follow around mid-year, with rectification work to be performed during the second half of 2017. The work is likely to take a minimum of 3 months to complete, with risks to further delays if ongoing consultations with the government are extended, or prove to be more extensive, as seen previously. Gross production from the Jubilee field averaged 82,500 b/d (net: 29,300 b/d to Tullow) in the first quarter of 2017, below the fields targeted capacity of 120,000b/d. Production will still grow year-on-year within the country, however production will remain below potential.
|Technical Issues Force Production Below Potential|
|Ghana Oil and Gas Production Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: BMI/EIA|